What a push is
A push is a hand where the player and the dealer finish with the same total and neither wins. The player’s bet is returned, so nothing is gained or lost. It is the third outcome of blackjack alongside winning and losing, and it is often forgotten when people ask how often they should win.
Pushes occur in a few ways:
- both finish with the same total, such as 19 against 19;
- both have a natural, so neither is paid;
- at some variants, a dealer total that would normally bust becomes a push by rule. In switch blackjack, for instance, a dealer total of 22 pushes against most player hands.
How often pushes occur
For a player following basic strategy, ties are commonly reported as about 8% to 9% of hands. That means roughly one hand in twelve. Over 1,000 hands, around 85 are pushes, give or take a few dozen of variation. These figures are approximate and move slightly with the rules.
The reason is simple: a tie needs both hands to land on the same total, and the dealer’s hand is forced to a total between 17 and 21 (unless it busts). So most ties happen at those totals.
Where the dealer finishes
Pushes depend on how the dealer’s hand ends. Using the same assumptions as a standard calculation (many decks, dealer stands on all 17s, upcards weighted by how often they occur, a dealer natural treated as an ordinary 21), the dealer’s final result across all upcards is approximately:
| Dealer finishes with | Share of hands |
|---|---|
| 17 | about 14.5% |
| 18 | about 14% |
| 19 | about 13% |
| 20 | about 18% |
| 21 | about 12% |
| Bust | about 28% |
Shares are rounded and total about 100%. These numbers are also the chances of a tie if the player stands on that exact total. A player who stands on 20 will push about 18% of the time, on 19 about 13%, and on 18 about 14%. The tie chance is highest at 20 because dealers finish at 20 more often than at 18, 19 or 21, which in turn reflects how many ten-value cards are in the deck.
Standing on 16 or lower never produces a push, because the dealer cannot finish below 17. Those hands either win by dealer bust or lose.
Pushes and the win rate
Since pushes are neither wins nor losses, they take a share away from both. Using rounded figures, a basic-strategy player might win about 42%, lose about 49% and push about 8.5%. That has two implications.
First, the headline win rate looks lower than it would if ties were split or ignored. Counting only hands with a winner, the win share is about 46%, calculated as 42.4 divided by (42.4 plus 49.1). It is still below half, but it is closer than the raw figure suggests. Which version a source quotes changes how the numbers read, so check whether pushes are included.
Second, pushes dilute results. A hand that pushes does not move the bankroll, so a session with more pushes shows smaller swings. The house edge is usually quoted per initial bet, and ties are part of that average with a result of zero.
Do pushes help or hurt?
A push is neither good nor bad in itself. It is a hand with a zero result, and the expected value of the game already includes it. Where pushes do matter:
- Fewer decided hands. At 1,000 hands with about 85 pushes, roughly 915 hands decide money. Faster games deal more hands, and so more decided hands, per hour, which raises the expected cost per hour at the same edge.
- Natural against natural. If the dealer shows an ace and you hold a natural, you can accept even money and take a certain win of the base bet instead of risking a push. That choice is tied to the insurance bet, and the odds are not generally in the player’s favour. A push is not a loss, so the decision is about expected value rather than about avoiding a bad outcome.
- Rule differences. A rule that turns some dealer busts into pushes, as in switch blackjack, turns some player wins into ties and so costs the player something.
Common mistakes about ties
- Treating a push as a win. It returns the stake and nothing more.
- Treating a push as a loss. The player has not lost money.
- Expecting pushes to be “due”. Each hand is independent, so a long run of pushes or of no pushes carries no information about the next hand.
- Adjusting play to avoid pushes. Basic strategy already accounts for ties in its expected values, so changing a decision to dodge one generally raises the cost.
Summary of what matters
Pushes are about one hand in twelve and mostly come from the dealer finishing on 17 to 21. They take share from both wins and losses, make the win rate look smaller, and do not on their own change who the game favours. The house edge still applies after counting them, and short-term results remain mostly a matter of luck.
As with all blackjack figures, these are for understanding, not for planning how to make money. Gambling can cause real harm, so play only within a budget you can afford and contact a local support service if you need help.