From a percentage to an hourly figure
A house edge percentage is hard to feel. A figure in money per hour is easier to judge. The conversion needs three inputs: the edge, the average bet and the number of hands per hour. Multiply them together and the result is the expected average cost of an hour of play.
The formula is:
expected cost per hour = hands per hour × average bet × house edge
It is an average over a very large number of hours. Any single hour can come out well ahead or well behind, so this is a planning estimate, not a forecast. Blackjack involves chance, and no estimate removes uncertainty.
Worked examples
All examples use illustrative numbers. Check them against your own situation.
Example 1. 60 hands in an hour, average bet $10, edge 0.5%.
- Total wagered: 60 × $10 = $600
- Expected cost: 0.5% of $600 = $3
Example 2. The same pace and bet, but the edge is 2% because of weaker rules or less accurate play.
- Total wagered: still $600
- Expected cost: 2% of $600 = $12
Example 3. 100 hands in an hour, average bet $25, edge 1%.
- Total wagered: 100 × $25 = $2,500
- Expected cost: 1% of $2,500 = $25
The examples show that cost grows with each of the three inputs. Doubling the bet doubles the average cost. Doubling the speed does too. A small change in the edge matters, but so does the amount wagered.
Where hands per hour comes from
The number of hands depends on the format. A full table with several players is usually slower than a table with one or two players, because each hand waits on the others. Hand counts of the order of 50 to 100 per hour are sometimes quoted for live tables, with heads-up play being faster. This is only a rough range, and your own pace could differ. Online and automated games can be much faster, which raises the total wagered per hour even if the bet size is unchanged.
If you want a personal number, count the hands you play in a fixed time, or check the history on an online site.
Which bet size to use
Use the average amount wagered per hand, including extra money from doubling and splitting. If you usually bet $10 but double down now and then, your average wagered per hand is a bit higher than $10. A rough figure is fine, since the exact number is not known in advance.
With side bets, add the side bet stake to the total wagered, and use that bet’s own edge for its portion. Side bets often have a higher edge than the main game, which can raise the overall cost more than the stake size suggests.
Which edge to use
The edge depends on the table rules and your own play. A rough reference is that careful basic strategy under good rules sits near half a percent, and worse rules or looser play raises it. If you are unsure, estimate high rather than low. It is safer to overestimate the cost than to be surprised.
Reading the result sensibly
Think of the expected cost as an entry price for the time you spend. If you would pay $12 for an hour of entertainment, example 2 fits. If that feels like too much, change an input: smaller bets, fewer hands, a better table, or a shorter session.
The estimate does not tell you what will happen. In a single hour of 60 hands at $10, the normal swing in results is far larger than the $3 or $12 average cost. You might win $100 or lose $100, and either would be unremarkable. The size of that swing is described by standard deviation, and a session budget is a practical way to keep the swing within what you can afford.
What the estimate does not include
- Tips, travel, food, drink or other costs of being at a venue.
- Any value from comps or promotions. Those are separate, and they depend on the casino and on your play, as discussed under comps and ratings.
- Online bonuses with wagering requirements, which have their own conditions.
- The effect of tiredness or alcohol, which tends to make decisions worse and the real edge higher.
Keeping the number honest
Because the estimate is simple, it is tempting to use it to justify playing longer: “it only costs $3 an hour”. Remember that cost scales with time. Eight hours at that pace is eight times the average cost, and the swings are larger over longer sessions. Set a limit before you begin, and stop when you reach it.
Only gamble with money you can afford to lose. Do not chase losses or borrow to play. If gambling is becoming a problem for you or someone you know, a local support service can offer help.